What’s Next and What You Can Do About It
Lessons from Generational Theory and the Path Forward
The older I get, the more interesting history becomes. It started with a deep dive into the Jonestown suicides with Jeff Guinn's The Road to Jonestown: Jim Jones and the Peoples Temple. I started wondering; why did cults suddenly become a thing in the 1960's? Historical events aren't random. Big ones follow some sort of predictable pattern. Stepping back to take in timelines, these events popped out like magic eye photos. Examining the past, could we predict the shape of future events?
This leads me to the research and generational theory of Neil Howe and William Strauss who published their seminal book Generations in 1992. They predicted the current societal upheaval based on repeated historical patterns. Strauss was an American author, historian, playwright, and lecturer who died in 2007. Howe is also an American author and historian, as well as an economist, and demographer. Their thinking unites diverse fields of study with a focus on history and generational cycles.
These are theories not facts. The information in Generations and later books certainly has their critics. In 1997, Michael Lind of the New York Times, characterizes their theory as 'vague' 'pseudoscience' as the nature of the theory is to predict concepts rather than specific events. Admittedly, this may come off as the equivalent to historical astrology. In a 2006 article, The Generation Gap: More Myth Than Reality, Human Resources expert, Frank Giancola writes about the difficulty of segmenting generations in the first place as well as using sweeping generalizations to describe the individuals within. The study of generations is more art than science at times. My aim is to present this theory as succinctly as possible and let you decide.
It must be said: this theory is apolitical and does not prescribe specific ideological solutions. A few years ago, Steve Bannon tried to hijack Howe's book, The Fourth Turning, twisting it towards right wing causes, and exaggerating the author's depiction of societal upheaval as apocalyptic. Howe and Strauss's generational theory is descriptive, merely analyzing the past and predicting conceptual events in the future. Howe, himself, says his theory can be harnessed by different political movements—whether authoritarian or democratic—depending on how society interprets and responds. Addressing comments about his political leanings, he notes that others form assumptions about him depending on which polarizing figure likes a particular book, rather than on his personal beliefs.
The point is to figure out what to do next. We repeat what we don't examine and heal. In this spirit, my hope is that we all take a step back, examine what's happening, and do our parts to shape society in the healthiest, most productive, and regenerative ways in order to provide maximum equality and benefit to all. Let's dive in.
Generational Theory
Howe and Strauss's generational theory views history as a repeating cycle of four generational archetypes—Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist—each shaped by the era in which they were born and grew up. Every 80–100 years, society moves through four “Turnings” (High, Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis), with each generation playing a distinct role. Every 50 years or so, the Crisis switches between secular and spiritual. Parenting styles also cycle from generation to generation, ranging from very engaged to unengaged.
• Prophets (Boomers) – Visionary, values-driven leaders who come of age during a High turning and push for change. As young adults, they grew up during a spiritual Crisis and some of them became hippies. Parents of Boomers were very engaged, often prescribing "proper" career and marriage paths.
• Nomads (Gen X) – Independent, pragmatic survivors who grew up in an Unraveling and are leaders during Crisis. Gen-X's Boomer parents were less engaged, often with two parents in the workforce. Often thought of as free-range or latch-key kids, Gen-X'ers wandered the neighborhood until dark.
• Heroes (Millennials) – Civic-minded, institution-builders who emerge from Crisis to rebuild society. Their Gen-X parents were very engaged "helicopter parents" who arranged playdates and arbitrated fights on behalf of their Millennial kids. As young adults, Millennials grew up during a secular Crisis, with some of them becoming today's Progressives, Libertarians and Populists.
• Artists (Gen Z & beyond) – Sensitive, adaptive nurturers shaped by post-Crisis stability. Gen-Z's Millennial parents are very engaged in "digital parenting," are more emotionally available, but tend to take a hands-off, child-led approach with their Gen-Z kids.
Each generation reacts to the strengths, forces, and failures of the one before, driving the cycle forward. The Fourth Turning is the current stage in Howe’s generational cycle theory, predicting a period of intense crisis, institutional instability, and societal upheaval that will result in the reshaping of the social and political order. Previous Fourth Turnings include the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II.
What You Can Do
During this turning phase, institutions weaken, trust erodes, and conflicts—domestic or global—force a reckoning. However, it also sets the stage for renewal, with a new societal structure emerging from the crisis. Howe predicts the current Turning (starting in the mid-2000s) will likely peak in the early 2030s, leading to the formation of stronger, redefined institutions.
We are entering an age of civic-minded renewal. If Howe’s Fourth Turning framework holds, we’re in a period of major societal upheaval that will produce new versions of institutions and culture. He believes individuals should focus on resilience, adaptability, and rebuilding for this next phase. He suggests key areas to prioritize:
1. Strengthen Personal Resilience
• Develop Practical Skills – Learn self-sufficiency: basic repairs, first aid, financial literacy, and even food security (gardening, preserving food). Pick up a hobby like woodworking or knitting.
• Mental & Emotional Resilience – Cultivate adaptability, mindfulness, and emotional intelligence to handle uncertainty. Grit and perseverance is needed to weather the current storm.
• Build Financial Stability – Reduce debt, diversify income streams, and invest in tangible assets rather than over-relying on institutions or Youtube stardom. This is solid advice no matter the generation or time period.
2. Strengthen Communities
• Invest in Local Networks – Strong communities tend to survive crises better than isolated individuals. Get involved in volunteering, mutual aid, neighborhood groups, or local governance. Take your connections from digital to analog and make friends in real life.
• Support Small, Resilient Systems – Shop locally, support independent businesses, and focus on decentralized systems that thrive even when big institutions falter. Even as Walmart and Amazon dominate, we still have choices. If possible, spend a little more in support of the up and comers - you'll probably get better service.
• Mentorship & Skill Sharing – Pass on knowledge and support younger generations, as intergenerational cooperation becomes crucial. Be humble and generous, open to learning, and teach what you know to others.
3. Prepare for Cultural and Institutional Change
• Understand the Cycles – Recognizing that institutions are may go through big changes and some will become obsolete. In their place, our job is to rebuild suitable alternatives. Educate yourself - information always reduces fear, anxiety, and frustration.
• Engage in Meaningful Work – Whether in business, politics, education, or the arts, contribute to shaping what comes next rather than just resisting decline. Start thinking about the world you want to live in - planning is the first step to building.
• Emphasize Long-Term Thinking – While uncertainty is high, those who plan for the rebuilding phase will be the ones shaping it. If your attention is wound up in current politics, you'll have no energy left over for shaping what's next. Vote with your words, footsteps, and money.
4. Embrace Generational Roles
• Millennials – As the likely “hero” generation in Howe’s framework, they may lead institution-building efforts post-Crisis. Leadership, service, and cooperation will be key. Egalitarianism won't work as we'll need more leadership structure. It's okay for people to specialize and lean into their strengths. Lead or support others.
• Gen X & Boomers – With their experience, they can guide and mentor younger generations through transition periods. Pragmatism and wisdom will be needed. Small in generational numbers, we may have missed the boat to become leaders. However, we can still offer life lessons, expertise and guidance to others.
• Gen Z & Beyond – Those coming of age now should focus on adaptability and learning from history in preparation for the next cultural phase. The first key to shaping the future is to accept the reality of what is. Protests are demands for current leaders to change the system. The time has passed for demonstrations, complaints and reactions. Instead, based on wisdom from mentors, Gen-Zer's need to determine what's needed most and start building.
5. Stay Open to Opportunity
• Innovation & Creativity – Turnings don’t just bring destruction—they create massive openings for new technologies, industries, ideas, and cultural renaissances. We are in a liminal period between an ending and a beginning. These in-betweens are breeding grounds for opportunists. If we don't take advantage of the opportunities available, others will move in and exploit the system. It is now your job to take the reins.
• Look for Gaps to Fill – As old institutions weaken, new solutions are needed. This could be in governance, finance, economics, media, or even social structures. What do people need? Based on your skills, knowledge, and resources, where can you be of service?
If nothing else, Howe and Strauss's theory is interesting. We don't have to subscribe to all of it to find inspiration on how to work through our current societal woes. You don't even have to 'reach across the aisle' to build something. You can look around you, see what's needed, and fill the gap. Tune in to and amplify the voice of your intuition. Turn your focus from what not to do, what you don't like or support, and aim it towards what you want to build or see in the world. Shake off judgment, support the enthusiasm of others and lend your experience. Find something that interests you and learn it. Stay curious and open to change. Tune out noise and tune in the signal - it's where meaning and purpose can be found. Above all, stay true to yourself - your authentic, real life self.
Oh man, as a Boomer—though I’m like a Boomer with an asterisk, because I don’t subscribe to the full Boomer starter pack—I found this very interesting. Politically, I’m always telling people, “Yeah, it sucks right now. It’s like wading through emotional quicksand while getting pecked by angry seagulls. But guess what? It sucked before, too. We survived. We’ll survive this circus again.”
I was, unfortunately—or maybe fortunately because it makes for great cocktail party stories—alive during the Jones cult and the Manson cult. I remember being a kid, hearing about it on TV, and my stepfather raging in the background about how the "damn hippies" were ruining America. Like, yeah, Dad, but maybe the real threat wasn’t the kid with the acoustic guitar and the flowers in his hair. Maybe it was the fact that you thought a belt was a parenting tool.
And God forbid we held up the peace sign. That wasn’t a gesture in our house. That was an invitation to get “spanked,” which is the nice, PR-friendly way of saying “beaten like a rug on laundry day.” You know, for promoting peace. Because nothing says "stop the violence" like a backhand.
But yeah, I see a lot of similarities right now. It’s scary. It feels like déjà vu with better graphics. But we’ll get through it. Humans are weirdly good at surviving chaos. If we survived the '70s—when cults, polyester, and disco all existed in the same timeline—we can survive this.